Super Bowl XLIV, Sunday, 6:25 pm ET, CBS
Super Bowl Line: Indianapolis Colts (-215) (-5)(-110) Total: 56.5
First and foremost, this is the match-up that everyone should have expected. The New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts were the last two undefeated teams, the #1 seeds in their respective conferences, with two of the best offenses in the NFL led by two of the best quarterbacks, but the Saints are definitely the underdog headed into Sunday’s game.
The Colts have the NFL’s MVP, but maybe Drew Brees wasn’t getting a fair shake in that race either. He threw one more touchdown than Peyton while tossing five fewer interceptions and also completing a higher percentage of his passes. Both players had amazing years, and maybe Manning was the most deserving, but that guy under center for the Saints isn’t bad either.
53% of the public bet is with the favored Colts, and over the last few days the line has gone from 5.5-6 points in favor of the Colts to -4.5 early Friday morning. The money line bet is around 58% for the underdog Saints. Neither team has been an underdog yet this season if you discount Week 17’s starter-free performances.
While the Saints lost just three games this season (only 2 in which starters played throughout), the Colts lost just two (and didn’t lose a single game in which the starters played from start to finish). Both of these teams were undefeated headed into Week 13. The Colts went to 14-0 before losing their final two regular season games; the Saints were 13-0 before dropping 3 straight to end the regular season.
The Saints were just 8-8 ATS during the regular season while Indianapolis was 10-5-1. The Saints are 1-1 ATS this post-season while Indy is 2-0. In the numbers game, the Saints rule the flashy areas; yards gained, points scored, time of possession – while the Colts pull ahead in other areas like red-zone, penalties, and yards allowed. This is truly a battle of the NFL’s two best teams.
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